plots of error in estimated crack depth versus known depth
for aluminum and titanium are shown in Figures 10a and 10b.
(Steel was not included due to poorer results.) The analysis
focuses on the tail of the data that crosses the probability of
0.05 and how well a normal distribution represents the data.
For both cases, the inversion algorithm overestimates the crack
depth, implying that the model is producing conservative
results. While the error trend for cracks in aluminum is right-
skewed, the trend for the left-side tail appears quite normal as
the probability approaches 0.05. Here, the 95% safety LUS bound
is estimated to be –0.26 mm, a significant result considering the
fairly wide variability present for the crack depth sizing data. In
practice, adding 0.26 mm to estimated depth would ensure that
nearly all cracks are mitigated during hole resizing. It is common
practice to perform a final BHEC inspection after hole resizing to
verify that no crack indication remains.
For the titanium error data, the tails of the distribution
were especially wide and indicated that assuming a normal
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Aluminum
Steell
Titanium
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Known crack length (mm)
1.2 1.4 0
0
0.220
0.440
0.660
0.880
1.00
1.2
1.44
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Known crack depth (mm)
1.2 1.4
Aluminummuminu
Steelle
Titaniummuniait 2
1
0 2 0 0 0 8 0 1 2
Al
S
T
0 2
0 4
0 6
0 8
0
1
Alu
ita
Figure 9. Plots of (a) estimated versus known crack length and (b) estimated versus known crack depth, grouped by material.
–0.4
0.003
0.01
0.02
0.05
0.10
0.25
0.50
0.75
0.90
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.997
–0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Error – crack depth estimate (mm)
0.003
0.01
0.02
0.05
0.10
0.25
0.50
0.75
0.90
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.997
–0.5 0 0.5 1
Error – crack depth estimate (mm)
3
7
Figure 10. Normal probability plots of error in the estimate of crack depths versus the known values for small (a) aluminum corner cracks
and (b) titanium corner cracks, with a 95% lower bound (aluminum: –0.255 mm [normal], –0.244 mm [tail] titanium: –0.228 mm [normal],
–0.416 mm [tail]).
TA B L E 5
Results for smoothed empirical likelihood quantiles
Quantile Material Estimate (mm) Lower 95% bound (mm) Upper 95% bound (mm)
5% Aluminum –0.255 –0.309 –0.186
5% Titanium –0.417 –0.449 –0.373
ME
|
CRACKSIZING
54
M AT E R I A L S E V A L U AT I O N • A U G U S T 2 0 2 5
(V)
crack
depth
EstEstimated
)(mm)
AmAmplitude
Probability Probability
for aluminum and titanium are shown in Figures 10a and 10b.
(Steel was not included due to poorer results.) The analysis
focuses on the tail of the data that crosses the probability of
0.05 and how well a normal distribution represents the data.
For both cases, the inversion algorithm overestimates the crack
depth, implying that the model is producing conservative
results. While the error trend for cracks in aluminum is right-
skewed, the trend for the left-side tail appears quite normal as
the probability approaches 0.05. Here, the 95% safety LUS bound
is estimated to be –0.26 mm, a significant result considering the
fairly wide variability present for the crack depth sizing data. In
practice, adding 0.26 mm to estimated depth would ensure that
nearly all cracks are mitigated during hole resizing. It is common
practice to perform a final BHEC inspection after hole resizing to
verify that no crack indication remains.
For the titanium error data, the tails of the distribution
were especially wide and indicated that assuming a normal
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Aluminum
Steell
Titanium
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Known crack length (mm)
1.2 1.4 0
0
0.220
0.440
0.660
0.880
1.00
1.2
1.44
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Known crack depth (mm)
1.2 1.4
Aluminummuminu
Steelle
Titaniummuniait 2
1
0 2 0 0 0 8 0 1 2
Al
S
T
0 2
0 4
0 6
0 8
0
1
Alu
ita
Figure 9. Plots of (a) estimated versus known crack length and (b) estimated versus known crack depth, grouped by material.
–0.4
0.003
0.01
0.02
0.05
0.10
0.25
0.50
0.75
0.90
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.997
–0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Error – crack depth estimate (mm)
0.003
0.01
0.02
0.05
0.10
0.25
0.50
0.75
0.90
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.997
–0.5 0 0.5 1
Error – crack depth estimate (mm)
3
7
Figure 10. Normal probability plots of error in the estimate of crack depths versus the known values for small (a) aluminum corner cracks
and (b) titanium corner cracks, with a 95% lower bound (aluminum: –0.255 mm [normal], –0.244 mm [tail] titanium: –0.228 mm [normal],
–0.416 mm [tail]).
TA B L E 5
Results for smoothed empirical likelihood quantiles
Quantile Material Estimate (mm) Lower 95% bound (mm) Upper 95% bound (mm)
5% Aluminum –0.255 –0.309 –0.186
5% Titanium –0.417 –0.449 –0.373
ME
|
CRACKSIZING
54
M AT E R I A L S E V A L U AT I O N • A U G U S T 2 0 2 5
(V)
crack
depth
EstEstimated
)(mm)
AmAmplitude
Probability Probability